Lucerne, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

334
FXUS66 KEKA 032301
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
301 PM PST Tue Dec 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Relatively clear, warm and dry conditions expected
through midweek. A weak shortwave will move through the region
Wednesday and Thursday, producing light drizzle along the north
coast. Chances for rainfall or drizzle increase through the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...With a strong ridge of high pressure firmly in
place, overnight lows are forecast to drop to chilly but seasonably
normal levels in the lower elevations once again tonight. The
ridgetop temperatures will likely be much milder above the
inversion. Coastal stratus and fog will begin increasing in coverage
tonight. A weak shortwave will clip the region Wednesday night,
mainly increasing cloud cover. Some light showers and coastal
drizzle will also possible early Thursday morning, but precipitation
accumulations will be highly limited with chances for over 0.1 inch
of rainfall less than 20%.

The ridge will further amplify late this week, and daytime highs
will be warm, pleasant and much above climatological averages. There
are indications the coastal stratus and it is possible fog will
regain more of a presence, and this would suppress high temps for
portions of the coast. A stronger system will impact the Pacific
Northwest this weekend, with some of it likely clipping N CA.
Probabilities for a wetting rainfall over a tenth for an inch go up
to 40 to 65%, but significantly drop for over 0.3 inches.
Orientation of steering high pressure will determine how much
moisture makes it to the coast; elevated PWAT values are available
just offshore within a weak AR-type feature. Cluster and ensemble
members show strong evidence the trough will then drop into the
Great Basin as an inside slider going into next week, and this
pattern is favorable for amplified offshore winds. /JJW



&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions with abundant clear skies prevail across
all TAF terminals this afternoon. Some tempo IFR visibility reduction
in mist is expected once again for KCEC later this evening. HREF
model guidance indicate a shallow marine layer developing along the
coast late tonight trough Wednesday. As a result, some low clouds
and visibility reduction in mist/fog are possible along the coastal
terminals. HREF visibility probability indicates there is a 30-40%
chance for visibility below 4SM, while 20-30% chance below 5SM per
NBM. Meanwhile, VFR conditions remain at UKI.


&&

.MARINE...Gentle to moderate northerly breezes have developed
across the coastal waters, with locally gusty winds up to 25 kts
downwind of Cape Mendocino this afternoon through early Wednesday.
Followed by light to gentle W-NW breezes. Winds will shift to S
north of Cape Mendocino Wednesday night as a weak frontal system
moves through. On Thursday, northerly winds will redeveloped, with
moderate to fresh breezes possible south of Cape Mendocino.

A short-period N wave at 4 to 5 feet are expected to subside
Wednesday afternoon. A long-mid period W swell will continue to
decay through Wednesday morning, followed by mid-period W swell will
arrive Wednesday afternoon and will peak late Wednesday night and
early Thursday at 6 feet. A forerunner of W well trains will
traverse the waters through the weekend.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
None.
&&

$$

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see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png